This research was carried out by a participant of Debunk.org internship program Vincent Latjes.
1. Introduction
Since February 2022 a complex and multifaceted conflict has unfolded in Eastern Europe, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine entered a new phase. Central to this evolving battlefield is the extensive use of disinformation campaigns, strategically employed as a weapon in the realm of hybrid warfare (Patel et al., 2020). These disinformation campaigns are deployed to shape perceptions and influence public opinion, both in Russia as well as in other countries. As such, these campaigns have previously proven effective in shaping narratives that advocate for a reinterpretation of events (Szostek, 2017). Which this study asserts can also be observed in case of the invasion of Ukraine. In the context of this study, disinformation is defined as deliberately false or incorrect information disseminated by Russian state-sponsored news media with the intent to mislead the public. This often involves Kremlin-issued propaganda, distributed to target rival powers and/or various media outlets. Reports on environmental or ecological aspects of the conflict are regularly included in Russian state-sponsored news media as part of these disinformation campaigns, such as for example in articles published by Lenta, TASS and RT (Sadovsky, 2023; TASS, 2023; Ugolny, 2023). Such reports exploit the global concern for environmental issues in support of conveying the Russian narrative of the conflict (European External Action Service, 2019, 2021).
Amidst the conflict, concerns over the state of the Nova Kakhovka dam emerged due to combat-related damage and the possibility of a breach. Not in the last place, due to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, located further upstream, depending on cooling water from the Dnieper river running by the dam. The fear materialized on the early morning of June 6th, 2023, when a devastating explosion damaged part of the Nova Kakhovka dam, causing it to breach and resulting in the depletion of the Kakhovka reservoir. This event led to extensive flooding and significant environmental damage along the Dnieper River, as reported by various Russian state-sponsored media (Kirichko, 2023; Ugolny, 2023). These reports not only highlighted the environmental impact of the dam breach but also exploited the disaster's environmental consequences to further convey narratives regarding the invasion of Ukraine.
The objective of this study has been to deepen the understanding of how Russian state-sponsored news media integrate environmental or ecological aspects of the Ukraine-Russia conflict into the ongoing narrative. Therefore, this study has examined how in 12 different Russian news articles narratives about the Nova Kakhovka dam breach narratives have been constructed, incorporating these aspects. Through unravelling the threads of Russian disinformation and environmental concerns, this study aims to shed light on the weaponization of environmental and ecological themes in the hybrid warfare that Russia is waging. Doing so, this study aims to answer the following question: what narratives have Russian state-sponsored news media constructed around environmental aspects of the Nova Kakhovka dam breach, and how are these constructed?
2. Results
2.1 Main and sub-narratives
Among the examined news articles, four different main narratives have been identified. Categorized under these main narratives are a total of 14 sub-narratives. In the context of this study, main narratives are defined as overarching, generic storylines which the various sub-narratives are derived from. Sub-narratives are in this context defined as distinct storylines that contribute to the main narrative under which they are categorized. An overview the different main and sub-narratives are listed in Table 1, including the frequency of appearance.
2.2 Rhetorical devices
Among the 12 examined news articles, the use of rhetorical devices has been observed in 83 cases. These cases appeared in 71 different sections of text, in which 21 different types of rhetorical devices have been (repeatedly) deployed. An overview of the observed rhetorical devices, including contextual definitions and the frequency of appearance, is listed in Table 2.
2.3 AI-generated coding results
The AI-generated coding results are presented in this subchapter, divided over 3 sections. The first section commences on locations, the second on institutions and the third displays a word cloud illustrating the various relevant concepts as identified within the examined articles.
2.2.1 Locations
The categorization of locations helps contextualize the role or significance of territorial and spacial dimensions as part of sub-narratives. An overview of the locations is presented in two tables. First, Table 3 lists an overview of location (categories) and the frequency of references. Second, Table 4 lists an overview of the references to locations as part of sub-narratives. Elaborate definitions of sub-narratives can be found in Table 1, chapter 3.1 (Main and sub- narratives).
Essential to note is that, as identified per publication date of the examined articles, both Ukraine- or Russia-occupied, Ukrainian territories represent a temporary snapshot. For the scope of this study, the territorial situation prevailing at the date of publication of examined articles is deemed exclusively relevant. The prevailing territorial situation at date of publication is determined using the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) interactive map of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine1. A supplementary point worth mentioning is that references to Kherson encompass both the city of Kherson and the surrounding province. In the context of this study, this province constitutes a blend of Ukraine- and Russia-occupied, Ukrainian territory. However, it is crucial to highlight that Kherson city returned under Ukrainian control on November 11, 2022, following Russia's invasion on February 24, 2022. Consequently, references to Kherson have been categorized as Ukraine-controlled territories for the purpose of this analysis. Furthermore, a notable observation is the identification of several references to locations outside of sub-narratives. Additionally, some locations were referenced within the context of overlapping sub-narratives. Consequently, the frequency of references to locations in Table 4 may deviate from the frequency of references to locations in Table 3.
2.2.2 Institutions
Institutions have been categorized by global, Russian, Ukrainian and Western state-affiliated and/or transnational institutions. This categorization helps to contextualize the role or significance of institutions as part of sub-narratives. An overview of these institutions is presented in two tables. First, Table 5 lists an overview of institutions (categories) and the frequency of references. Second, Table 6 lists an overview of the references to institutions as part of sub-narratives. Elaborate definitions of sub-narratives in Table 1 can be found in chapter 3.2 (Main and sub-narratives).
To be noted is that institutions are classified based on the context of examined articles. As such, the Ministry of Health of Crimea is considered as a Russian rather than a Ukrainian institution and NATO as a Western rather than a global institution. Furthermore, a number of identified references to institutions was observed outside of sub-narratives. And, next to that, some institutions were mentioned in the context of overlapping sub-narratives. Thus, the frequency of references to institutions in Table 6 deviates in some cases from the number of institutions mentioned as part of sub-narratives in Table 5.
2.2.3 Word cloud concepts
Based on AI-identified concepts in the examined data, the word cloud presented as figure 1 has been compiled, in order to support examination of key concepts within the analysed articles. Manually excluded from the word cloud are words describing anything other than the content of the examined news articles, such as in-text advertisements or place of publication. The concepts visualized in this word cloud are characterized by font size and colour: displaying frequency of occurrence is font size, colour represents relatedness to other presented concepts.
3. Discussion
3.1 Main and sub-narratives
The study identified four main narratives, each serving as a foundation for various sub-narratives. These narratives provide a structured framework for understanding how Russian state-sponsored news media have constructed their ongoing narrative of the invasion of Ukraine, incorporating environmental or ecological aspects, regarding the Nova Kakhovka dam breach. Among the sub-narratives, there is one exception – a sub-narrative (IV. a.) asserting Russia's rightful claim to sovereign territory despite Ukraine's dispute, propagated through a special military operation. Despite contextually connected, this sub-narrative does not directly connect to the disaster itself. This sub-narrative has thus been included in the described framework, but will not be further elaborated upon within the discussion.
The first main narrative revolves around motives, causes, and justifications for the dam breach, and subsequently, the disaster that ensued. Aligned with the first narrative are multiple sub-narratives, including the suggestion that the dam was blown up by a HIMARS-attack, NATO/West's assumed responsibility through direct involvement, Russia being the usual suspect, deliberate destruction to cut off the Crimean water supply, Ukrainian forces sabotaging the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline as an act of environmental terrorism, shelling by Ukrainian forces causing the dam breach, Ukrainian authorities raising water levels in preparation for the dam's destruction, and the Bucha massacre being a supposed Ukrainian inside job, demonstrating their capability to cause the dam breach and impede evacuation through continued shelling.
“As Vasily Nebenzya, the permanent representative of the Russian Federation to the UN noted, the world organization, in the context of the investigation into the Kakhovka hydroelectric station, should not repeat the mistakes, as in the case of the Ukrainian provocation in Bucha and the undermining of the Nord Streams.” – Yuri Kogalov, Rossiyskaya gazeta
The second main narrative centers on the current situation surrounding the dam and the flooded area. The sole sub-narrative within this category emphasizes that Ukrainian forces hinder evacuation efforts by persistently shelling the affected area.
The third main narrative delves into the aftermath of the dam breach, encompassing sub-narratives of a transnational disaster resulting from the breach, the assertion that blowing up the dam constitutes an ecocide considering its consequences, the dam breach leading to an ecotoxic disaster, the anticipation that eventually, everything will return to business as usual, the justification for the resettlement of flooded area residents, including children, and a looming disastrous mosquito plague threatening Crimea.
“What really worries epidemiologists is the possibility of a large breeding ground of mosquitoes in flooded areas. Nothing will stop the insects from crossing over to Crimea, and at the same time bringing with them dangerous infections, including West Nile fever.” – Anna Kirienk, crimea.kp.ru
The majority of sub-narratives align with the main narratives concerning the motive for, cause of, or justification of the dam breach and the subsequent disaster, as well as the aftermath of the dam breach. Sub-narratives related to the motive for, cause of, or justification of the dam breach and the consequent disaster predominantly focus on depicting in-group and out-group dynamics. This involves sub-narratives attributing responsibility to the West or NATO, either directly or indirectly, and placing blame on Ukraine for alleged atrocities.
“The fallout from Tuesday’s attack on the Kakhovka dam continues to mount, with the Kremlin naming the incident as a ‘barbaric act’ ordered “at the suggestion of [Kiev’s] Western curators, and a calamity which has unleashed a large-scale environmental and human disaster.” – Ilya Tsukanov, Sputnik International
Notably, Russia is consistently portrayed as the victim in these instances. As for the sub-narratives concerning the aftermath of the dam breach, they encompass a combination of different outcomes. The emphasis is largely on the negative environmental impact on both domestic and international environments. These outcomes not only paint grim picture of the situation but also serve to rationalize the continuation of alleged war crimes through the relocation of children from flooded areas. A significant portion of the sub-narratives revolves around the dissemination of copycat accounts of events. These accounts involve attributing atrocities, which have been linked to Russian forces, to Ukrainian hands. Instances include the sub-narrative suggesting that the Bucha massacre was an inside job and claims that Ukrainian forces impede evacuation efforts in flooded areas through continued shelling.
3.2 Construction of narratives
This study concentrated on pinpointing three distinct elements of the narratives’ construction: rhetorical devices, locations and institutions. Of these elements, rhetorical devices often embed an important component in the context of disinformation, increasing the perceived legitimacy of information (Ward et al., 2022). Locations and institutions play a crucial role in shaping the identified narratives due to the significance of (1) territorial dimensions and (2) the exercise of institutional power within the broader conflict (Karapanos et al., 2012; Linde, 2005). Institutions, in this context, encompass global, Russian, Ukrainian and Western state-affiliated and/or transnational institutions. Locations involve Russian, (Russian-controlled) Ukrainian and non-Russia- or -Ukraine territories, next to geographical locations and geographical elements.
The rhetorical devices employed in the narratives primarily consist of a diverse set of deceptive techniques portraying Russia's involvement in a favourable light through manipulative and fallacious reasoning. A common thread among the observed techniques is the propagation of false information, emotional manipulation, attacking opponents instead of addressing arguments, and denial of responsibility by placing blame on others. These techniques collectively work to shape a specific narrative or viewpoint, acting as substitutes for providing concrete evidence or logical reasoning (European External Action Service, n.d.; Oxford University Press, 2023; The University of Texas, n.d.). An example of such reasoning is provided by the quote below.
“They want to leave for Russia a territory in accordance with scorched earth tactics – destruction, an embittered population, preferably with environmental pollution, radioactive residues or perhaps [the fallout from] biological weapons,’ Leonkov, the editor of Arsenal Otechestva, a Russian military affairs magazine, told Sputnik.” – Ilya Tsukanov, Sputnik International
Notably, more than half of the observed instances of rhetorical devices center around the utilization of the big lie technique and paradiastoles. In the context of the big lie technique, false ideas are spread without substantiating evidence, with blame shifted onto Ukraine for the dam breach. Paradiastoles involve the manipulation of reports by reframing opposing arguments to align with Russia's positions, such as the unfounded accusation that Ukraine committed an ecocide. Both techniques share a commonality in their reliance on disinformation and manipulation to influence perceptions.
Roughly half of the references to locations focus on Ukraine-controlled, Ukrainian territory, with a significant majority directed towards Ukraine, Kherson, and Kyiv. In the context of these articles, mentions of Ukraine and Kyiv predominantly relate to the Ukrainian state as a state actor. References to Crimea, Novaya Kakhovka, Russia and Moscow constitute the majority of references to Ukrainian territories under Russian control and Russian territories, making up for roughly 1 out of 5 of the total of references to locations. This predominant share of territories under control of Russia or Ukraine further constitutionalizes in- and outgroup dynamics, consistently emerging as a central theme throughout the examined articles (Privman et al., 2013). References to geographical elements and geographical locations make up for about 1 out of 5 location references, following which non-Ukraine and non-Russia territories make up for little less than 1 out of 10 location references. Noticeable is the contribution of non-Ukraine and non-Russia territories to the identified pattern of in- and outgroup dynamics as well. That is, as these references repeatedly stress the involvement of Ukrainian allies. Furthermore, the here outlined numerical trends emphasize the significance of territorial dimensions within the broader context of locations.
Among references to institutions, Russian and Ukrainian entities represent a significant majority. Regarding references to Russian institutions, a majority is attributed to the Russian Federation and to Moscow, both referring to the overarching governmental structure of Russia. Notably, the Kremlin as an institution is only mentioned once. Here it is crucial to recognize that while both Moscow and the Kremlin symbolize the political leadership or executive power of the Russian state, the difference seems to lie in their roles. Moscow represents the broader political body, whereas the Kremlin serves as the evident symbolization of Putin’s institutional power. This distinction aligns with an absence of Putin's responsibility or involvement among sub-narratives, while Russia as a state actor is repeatedly presented, though often implicitly.
References to locations, as co-occurring with sub-narratives, predominantly consist of Russian-controlled (Ukrainian) territories. Geographical and geographical elements, as well as non-Russian and (non-)Ukraine controlled territories collectively contribute to a comparable share. Minor exceptions to this observation involve references to the Black Sea, the front, and Kyiv. Notably, these last-mentioned locations exhibit a slightly higher co-occurrence rate when compared to other referenced locations. The prevalence of references to Russian-controlled (Ukrainian) territories is particularly notable within narratives concerning the motive, cause, or justification of the dam breach and the subsequent disaster. Among these, a substantial share is associated with narratives implicating Western responsibility, either directly or through a HIMARS-attack, and the recurrent portrayal of Russia as the usual suspect. An exception to this pattern is the relatively low frequency of references to Novaya Kakhovka among Russian-controlled (Ukrainian) territories co-occurring with this narrative subgroup.
The significant presence of references to Russian-controlled, Ukrainian territories, especially in the context of narratives related to a motive for, cause or justification of the dam breach and the consequent disaster, is partly explained by the higher frequency of occurrence of sub-narratives within this main narrative. However, it also serves as further indication of the previously observed, divisive in- and outgroup dynamics. By consistently emphasizing the relevance of these locations, they namely become institutionalized within these sub-narratives, reinforcing their divisive nature.
Within the context of co-occurrences between references to institutions and sub-narratives, a substantial proportion is attributed to mentions of Russian and Ukrainian institutions. This notable trend is particularly evident in references to The Russian Federation, Kyiv, and Ukraine. In addition to references to Russian and Ukrainian institutions, there is a considerable share of mentions related to the United States and Moscow. The remaining institutions entail a comparatively smaller share among observed co-occurrences between institutions and sub-narratives. Similarly to co-occurrences between locations and sub-narratives, the prevalence of references to institutions is particularly notable within sub-narratives focusing on the motive, cause, or justification of the dam breach and the subsequent disaster. And, also similarly, a substantial share of these co-occurrences is again associated with sub-narratives (in)directly implicating Western responsibility and portraying Russia as the usual suspect. This thematic concentration underscores the significance of institutions in structuring sub-narratives furthermore attributing to the identified in and outgroup dynamics.
3.3 External interpretations of results
In addition to the previously mentioned points, a further interpretation emerged from the examined data. Namely, amidst the accusations and opposing arguments mimicked in support of the Russian narrative, two widespread arguments attributing blame to Russia by Ukraine are noticeably disregarded within the examined narratives. The first of these unmentioned arguments centers around Ukrainian drone footage showing a car, seemingly loaded with explosives, positioned on the dam about two months before the blast (Boffey, 2023). Although not definitive proof, it does present a plausible argument for Russian involvement in the dam's breach. However, in contradiction to numerous other observed paradiastoles and appearances of the big lie technique, this aspect of the Ukrainian narrative remained entirely unaddressed. The second argument left unaddressed in these articles is that, despite a consistent emphasis on Russian territorial claims throughout the Russian sub-narratives, there appears to be a lack of acknowledgment. Namely, the fact that the dam was part of Russian-controlled territory during the breach, pleas in favor of Ukraine’s account that Russia blew up the dam (Chernov & Hinnant, 2023; Glanz et al., 2023). However, also this part of the Ukrainian narrative regarding the Nova Kakhovka dam breach was left unaddressed.
3.4 Recommendations and future directions
To explore the structure of the sub-narratives identified in this study, attention was directed toward rhetorical devices, locations, and institutions. While this approach offered valuable insights, a more comprehensive understanding of the narrative construction would have been achieved by incorporating human actors alongside institutional ones (Koller, 2009). Next to that, a thematic-focussed approach to the analysis of rhetorical devices’ could have provided more profound insight into the strategical deployment of rhetorical devices – and thus how these particularly contribute to the reinforcement of narratives (Brinton, 2005; Ward et al., 2022). Initially, this study aimed to investigate how Russian state-sponsored news media integrate environmental and ecological aspects of the Ukraine-Russia conflict into their ongoing narrative. However, the findings shifted the focus towards a broader understanding of the narratives constructed by Russian state-sponsored news media, specifically related to the Kakhovka dam breach. A more targeted exploration of environmental or ecological aspects could have been ensured by exclusively examining narratives related to these aspects.
For future research, the following two recommendations are proposed based on the study's outcomes. Firstly, if focusing on the identified outcomes, a temporal content analysis is suggested. This approach involves examining the different narratives identified in this study in a more extensive sample set of Russian state-sponsored news media articles. This analysis should aim to determine these narratives’ development in the lead-up to and aftermath of the Nova Kakhovka dam breach. Such an examination could offer additional insights into how different elements other than locations and institutions contribute to constructing and developing the identified narratives, within the broader context of the Ukrainian-Russian war. Secondly, concerning the original focus on environmental or ecological aspects, a case study involving a broader range of articles related to these aspects such as the deployment of uranium shells or incidents involving Ukrainian nuclear power plants amidst the battlefield might be more appropriate. Such examination should concentrate on identifying narratives incorporating environmental or ecological aspects, rather than maintaining a contextual affiliation.
4. Conclusion
The study revealed four main narratives, with various sub-narratives. The first main narrative explores motives and justifications for the dam breach, spawning sub-narratives attributing responsibility Ukraine and its allies and predominantly focusing on in- and out-group dynamics. Doing so, Ukraine is structurally blamed for alleged atrocities, while consistently portraying Russia’s innocence and victimhood. The second main narrative focuses on the current dam situation, with the sole sub-narrative highlighting Ukrainian forces hindering ongoing evacuations. The third main narrative delves into the aftermath, by depicting an (inter)national environmental disaster, framing the event as ecocide, predicting a return to normalcy, and justifying the resettlement of flooded area residents – including children. The fourth main narrative, found indirectly related to the dam breach, included the sub-narrative of territorial claim or a justification of the invasion.
A significant portion of sub-narratives involves disseminating copycat accounts, with some cases featuring unclear or exaggerated claims of Ukraine's responsibility. Notably, unlike observed copycat accounts, Ukrainian drone footage showing a potentially explosive-laden car on the dam prior to the blast was left unaddressed. This also accounts for the Ukrainian narrative of Russia’s involvement, due to the dam being part of Russian-controlled territory during the breach.
This study furthermore examined how rhetorical devices, institutions and locations play role in constructing the identified narratives. Predominantly, the identified rhetorical devices rely on false information and manipulation of readers to shape specific narratives and influence perceptions. In particular, more than half of the observed instances involved the big lie technique and paradiastoles. By the big lie technique false ideas are spread without evidence, commonly shifting blame onto Ukraine for the dam breach. Paradiastoles manipulate reports by reframing opposing arguments to align with Russia's positions, such as by the accusation of Ukraine committing ecocide.
Locations and institutions prove crucial in shaping the identified sub-narratives, given territorial dimensions and institutional power embroiled in the broader conflict. References to locations and institutions are found to mainly prevail among sub-narratives implicating Western responsibility and portrayal of Russia as the usual suspect. Predominantly co-occurring with sub-narratives are references to Russian-controlled territories, notably Crimea, Moscow and Russia. Co-occurrences of sub-narratives and institutions are mainly observed involving the Russian Federation, Kyiv, and Ukraine asides from, to a lesser extent, other Ukrainian and Russian institutions. This thematic concentration emphasizes the importance of locations and institutions in structuring sub-narratives, contributing to identified dynamics of in- and outgroup dynamics. Specifically, through the use of territorial dimensions and opposing institutional powers, the divisiveness of these sub-narratives is further institutionalized.
A more comprehensive understanding of the sub-narratives’ power dimensions could have been achieved by examining human actors next to institutional ones. Additionally, a thematic-focused analysis of rhetorical devices could have provided deeper insights into their strategic deployment. A more targeted exploration of environmental and ecological aspects could have been ensured by exclusive examination of sub-narratives related to these aspects. For future research, firstly a temporal content analysis is suggested to examine identified narratives in a broader sample set. This could offer insights into the development of these sub-narratives in conjunction with the event of the Nova Kakhovka dam breach. Secondly, for the original focus on environmental or ecological aspects, a case study involving a broader range of articles, such as incidents involving Ukrainian nuclear power plants, might be more appropriate. Such examination should concentrate on identifying sub-narratives incorporating environmental or ecological aspects, maintaining a broader contextual affiliation.
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